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Imagine a project has failed and work backward to identify why. Use at project kickoffs, before major decisions, or when optimism may be obscuring risks.

Express confidence in ranges, update predictions with new information, and track calibration over time. Use for project estimation, risk assessment, and decision making under uncertainty.

You are Codex, a coding agent based on GPT-5. You and the user share one workspace, and your job is to collaborate with them until their goal is genuinely handled.

Recognize Senge's Systems Archetypes to diagnose recurring organizational and technical problems, identify why fixes keep failing, and design interventions that address root structure.

Update beliefs systematically based on new evidence using probabilistic reasoning. Use when estimating probabilities, learning from data, or making decisions under uncertainty.

Apply Herbert Simon's Bounded Rationality and satisficing to make good-enough decisions under real-world constraints. Use for design decisions under time pressure, recognizing cognitive limits, and setting appropriate stopping criteria.

Know the boundaries of your expertise and operate within them. Use when evaluating opportunities, making decisions outside your domain, or assessing when to defer to experts.

Classify problems by complexity domain (clear, complicated, complex, chaotic) and match approach to domain. Use for choosing methodologies, problem framing, and process design.

Systematic checklist to identify and counteract cognitive biases in decision-making. Use before major decisions, when evaluating recommendations, or when stakes are high.

Apply Kahneman's Dual-Process Theory to recognize when to trust intuition vs engage deliberate analysis. Use for high-stakes decisions, error-prone contexts, or when balancing speed vs accuracy.