{"kind":"Skill","metadata":{"namespace":"community","name":"returns-analysis","version":"0.1.0"},"spec":{"description":"description: Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation. Models returns across entry multiple, leverage, exit multiple, growth, and hold period scenarios. Use when sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing IC returns exhibits. Triggers on \"returns analysis\", \"IRR sensitivity\", \"MOIC table\", \"what's the return at\", \"model the returns\", or \"back of the envelope\".","files":{"SKILL.md":"# Returns Analysis\n\ndescription: Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation. Models returns across entry multiple, leverage, exit multiple, growth, and hold period scenarios. Use when sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing IC returns exhibits. Triggers on \"returns analysis\", \"IRR sensitivity\", \"MOIC table\", \"what's the return at\", \"model the returns\", or \"back of the envelope\".\n\n## Workflow\n\n### Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs\n\nAsk for (or extract from prior analysis):\n\n**Entry:**\n- Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)\n- Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)\n- Enterprise value\n- Net debt at close\n- Equity check size\n- Transaction fees \u0026 expenses\n\n**Financing:**\n- Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)\n- Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)\n- Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)\n- Equity contribution\n\n**Operating Assumptions:**\n- Revenue growth rate (annual)\n- EBITDA margin trajectory\n- Capex as % of revenue\n- Working capital changes\n- Debt paydown schedule\n\n**Exit:**\n- Hold period (years)\n- Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)\n- Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)\n\n### Step 2: Base Case Returns\n\nCalculate:\n\n| Metric | Value |\n|--------|-------|\n| Entry EV | |\n| Equity invested | |\n| Exit EBITDA | |\n| Exit EV | |\n| Net debt at exit | |\n| Exit equity value | |\n| **MOIC** | |\n| **IRR** | |\n| Cash-on-cash | |\n\nShow the returns waterfall:\n- EBITDA growth contribution\n- Multiple expansion/contraction contribution\n- Debt paydown contribution\n- Fee/expense drag\n\n### Step 3: Sensitivity Tables\n\nBuild 2-way sensitivity matrices:\n\n**Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple**\n| | Exit 6x | Exit 7x | Exit 8x | Exit 9x | Exit 10x |\n|---|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|\n| Entry 7x | | | | | |\n| Entry 8x | | | | | |\n| Entry 9x | | | | | |\n| Entry 10x | | | | | |\n\n**EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple** (at fixed entry)\n\n**Leverage vs. Exit Multiple** (at fixed entry and growth)\n\n**Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple**\n\nShow both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).\n\n### Step 4: Scenario Analysis\n\nBuild 3 scenarios:\n\n| | Bull | Base | Bear |\n|---|------|------|------|\n| Revenue CAGR | | | |\n| Exit EBITDA margin | | | |\n| Exit multiple | | | |\n| Exit EBITDA | | | |\n| MOIC | | | |\n| IRR | | | |\n\n### Step 5: Output\n\n- Excel workbook with:\n  - Assumptions tab\n  - Returns calculation\n  - Sensitivity tables (formatted with conditional coloring)\n  - Scenario summary\n- One-page returns summary suitable for IC deck\n\n## Key Formulas\n\n- **MOIC** = Exit Equity Value / Equity Invested\n- **IRR** = solve for r: Equity Invested × (1 + r)^n = Exit Equity Value (adjust for interim cash flows)\n- **Returns attribution**:\n  - Growth: (Exit EBITDA - Entry EBITDA) × Exit Multiple / Equity\n  - Multiple: (Exit Multiple - Entry Multiple) × Entry EBITDA / Equity\n  - Leverage: Debt paydown over hold period / Equity\n\n## Important Notes\n\n- Always show returns both gross and net of fees/carry where applicable\n- Management rollover and co-invest change the equity check — ask if relevant\n- Dividend recaps or interim distributions affect IRR significantly — include if planned\n- Don't forget transaction costs (typically 2-4% of EV) — they reduce Day 1 equity value\n- Tax considerations (asset vs. stock deal, 338(h)(10) election) can materially affect after-tax returns\n"},"import":{"commit_sha":"9affc6e683bbaf66361058117027cf5a50bf1861","imported_at":"2026-05-18T20:09:40Z","license_text":"\n                                 Apache License\n                           Version 2.0, January 2004\n                        http://www.apache.org/licenses/\n\n   TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR USE, REPRODUCTION, AND DISTRIBUTION\n\n   1. 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