{"kind":"Skill","metadata":{"namespace":"community","name":"thinking-model-router","version":"0.1.0"},"spec":{"description":"Route to the right mental model based on your domain and problem type. The single entry point for all thinking skills.","files":{"SKILL.md":"---\nname: thinking-model-router\ndescription: Route to the right mental model based on your domain and problem type. The single entry point for all thinking skills.\n---\n\n# Model Router\n\n## Overview\n\nThis is the **master routing skill** for all mental models. Instead of knowing 38 frameworks, start here. Identify your domain and problem type, and this skill points you to the right model(s). Think of it as the \"which tool do I use?\" guide.\n\n**Core Principle:** Don't memorize models—memorize how to find the right one. Domain + Problem Type → Model.\n\n## Quick Router\n\n### Step 1: What's Your Domain?\n\n| Domain | You're working on... |\n|--------|---------------------|\n| **Coding/Debugging** | Bugs, errors, performance issues, root cause |\n| **Architecture** | System design, technical decisions, scalability |\n| **Product** | Features, user needs, prioritization, roadmap |\n| **Business Strategy** | Competition, growth, market, organization |\n| **Personal Decisions** | Career, life choices, major commitments |\n| **Abstract/Analytical** | Arguments, ideas, theories, pure reasoning |\n| **Risk/Safety** | What could go wrong, preparation, resilience |\n| **Innovation** | New ideas, breakthroughs, creative solutions |\n\n### Step 2: What's Your Problem Type?\n\n| Type | You need to... |\n|------|----------------|\n| **Diagnose** | Find root cause, understand why |\n| **Decide** | Choose between options |\n| **Understand** | Grasp how something works |\n| **Create** | Generate new solutions |\n| **Evaluate** | Judge quality or validity |\n| **Predict** | Forecast outcomes |\n| **Optimize** | Improve performance |\n\n---\n\n## Domain → Model Maps\n\n### 🖥️ Coding \u0026 Debugging\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nBug with unknown cause           → Scientific Method, 5 Whys Plus\nPerformance degradation          → Theory of Constraints, Systems Thinking\nSpans multiple services          → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops\nIncident postmortem              → 5 Whys Plus, Systems Thinking\nFlaky/intermittent behavior      → Scientific Method (hypothesis testing)\n\"It works on my machine\"         → Map-Territory (model vs reality gap)\n```\n\n**Default for debugging:** Start with **5 Whys Plus**, escalate to **Systems Thinking** if it spans components.\n\n---\n\n### 🏗️ Architecture \u0026 Technical Decisions\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nTechnology choice                → Lindy Effect, Reversibility\nBuild vs buy                     → Opportunity Cost, First Principles\nScalability design               → Systems Thinking, Leverage Points\nMicroservices vs monolith        → Cynefin, Reversibility\nDatabase selection               → Lindy Effect, Theory of Constraints\nAPI design tradeoffs             → TRIZ (resolve contradictions)\nShould we rewrite?               → Second-Order, Opportunity Cost\n```\n\n**Default for architecture:** Start with **Reversibility** (is this Type 1 or Type 2?), then **Systems Thinking** for interconnections.\n\n---\n\n### 📦 Product \u0026 Feature Development\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nWhat should we build?            → Jobs to be Done\nFeature prioritization           → Opportunity Cost, Theory of Constraints\nWhy aren't users engaging?       → Jobs to be Done, 5 Whys Plus\nNew product exploration          → Effectuation, First Principles\nShould we pivot?                 → Regret Minimization, Reversibility\nProduct-market fit               → Jobs to be Done, Scientific Method\nRoadmap planning                 → Theory of Constraints, Opportunity Cost\nA/B test design                  → Scientific Method, Bayesian\n```\n\n**Default for product:** Start with **Jobs to be Done** (what job is the user hiring this for?).\n\n---\n\n### 📈 Business Strategy\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nCompetitive analysis             → Red Team, Second-Order\nMarket entry                     → Cynefin, Effectuation\nGrowth strategy                  → Feedback Loops, Leverage Points\nOrganizational dysfunction       → Archetypes, Systems Thinking\nResource allocation              → Theory of Constraints, Opportunity Cost\nStartup strategy                 → Effectuation, Margin of Safety\nM\u0026A evaluation                   → Pre-mortem, Steel-manning\nPricing decisions                → First Principles, Fermi Estimation\n```\n\n**Default for strategy:** Start with **Cynefin** (what domain is this problem in?), then match approach.\n\n---\n\n### 🧑 Personal \u0026 Career Decisions\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nShould I take this job?          → Regret Minimization, Reversibility\nCareer direction                 → Circle of Competence, Regret Minimization\nMajor life decision              → Regret Minimization, Pre-mortem\nLearning what to learn           → Circle of Competence, Lindy Effect\nNegotiation prep                 → Steel-manning, Red Team\nShould I start a company?        → Effectuation, Margin of Safety, Pre-mortem\nTime allocation                  → Opportunity Cost, Theory of Constraints\n```\n\n**Default for personal:** Start with **Regret Minimization** (what will 80-year-old you think?).\n\n---\n\n### 🧠 Abstract \u0026 Analytical Thinking\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nEvaluating an argument           → Steel-manning, Bayesian\nChallenging assumptions          → First Principles, Socratic\nEstimating unknowns              → Fermi Estimation, Probabilistic\nUpdating beliefs                 → Bayesian, Probabilistic\nExploring edge cases             → Thought Experiment, Inversion\nFinding logical flaws            → Inversion, Steel-manning\nComplex causation                → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops\nPhilosophical questions          → Thought Experiment, First Principles\n```\n\n**Default for abstract:** Start with **Steel-manning** (argue the strongest opposing view first).\n\n---\n\n### ⚠️ Risk \u0026 Safety\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nWhat could go wrong?             → Pre-mortem, Red Team\nSecurity review                  → Red Team, Inversion\nDisaster preparation             → Pre-mortem, Margin of Safety\nAvoiding catastrophic failure    → Margin of Safety, Via Negativa\nStress-testing plans             → Red Team, Pre-mortem\nProbability of failure           → Probabilistic, Bayesian\nBuilding resilience              → Via Negativa, Margin of Safety\n```\n\n**Default for risk:** Start with **Pre-mortem** (assume failure, explain why).\n\n---\n\n### 💡 Innovation \u0026 Creativity\n\n```\nPROBLEM                          → MODEL(S)\n─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\nBreakthrough needed              → First Principles, TRIZ\nStuck on contradictions          → TRIZ\nLimited resources                → Effectuation, Via Negativa\nSimplification                   → Via Negativa, Occam's Razor\nChallenging \"impossible\"         → First Principles, TRIZ\nNew market creation              → Effectuation, Jobs to be Done\nRemoving complexity              → Via Negativa, Occam's Razor\n```\n\n**Default for innovation:** Start with **First Principles** (strip to fundamentals, rebuild).\n\n---\n\n## Quick Reference Card\n\n```\n┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐\n│                    MENTAL MODEL QUICK ROUTER                     │\n├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤\n│                                                                  │\n│  \"Why is this broken?\"        → 5 Whys Plus, Scientific Method  │\n│  \"How does this system work?\" → Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops│\n│  \"What should we build?\"      → Jobs to be Done                 │\n│  \"Should I do this?\"          → Reversibility, Regret Min       │\n│  \"What could go wrong?\"       → Pre-mortem, Red Team            │\n│  \"How do I innovate?\"         → First Principles, TRIZ          │\n│  \"What's the probability?\"    → Bayesian, Probabilistic         │\n│  \"Where's the bottleneck?\"    → Theory of Constraints           │\n│  \"What am I giving up?\"       → Opportunity Cost                │\n│  \"Is this argument valid?\"    → Steel-manning                   │\n│  \"Will this technology last?\" → Lindy Effect                    │\n│  \"How complex is this?\"       → Cynefin                         │\n│  \"What to remove?\"            → Via Negativa                    │\n│  \"Is this safe enough?\"       → Margin of Safety                │\n│                                                                  │\n└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘\n```\n\n## Decision Flow\n\n```\nSTART HERE\n    │\n    ▼\n┌─────────────────────┐\n│ What's your domain? │\n└──────────┬──────────┘\n           │\n     ┌─────┴─────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┐\n     ▼           ▼          ▼          ▼          ▼\n  Coding    Architecture  Product   Strategy   Personal\n     │           │          │          │          │\n     ▼           ▼          ▼          ▼          ▼\n┌─────────────────────┐\n│ What problem type?  │\n│ Diagnose/Decide/    │\n│ Understand/Create/  │\n│ Evaluate/Predict    │\n└──────────┬──────────┘\n           │\n           ▼\n┌─────────────────────┐\n│ Look up in domain   │\n│ table above         │\n└──────────┬──────────┘\n           │\n           ▼\n┌─────────────────────┐\n│ Single model enough?│\n└──────────┬──────────┘\n           │\n    ┌──────┴──────┐\n    ▼             ▼\n   YES           NO\n    │             │\n    ▼             ▼\n Apply it    Use Model Combination\n             (Sequential/Parallel/Nested)\n```\n\n## Model Inventory by Category\n\n### Diagnostic Models (Find root cause)\n- `5 Whys Plus` - Iterative \"why\" with bias guards\n- `Scientific Method` - Hypothesis → Test → Learn\n- `Kepner-Tregoe` - Systematic problem/decision analysis\n\n### Decision Models (Choose wisely)\n- `Reversibility` - Type 1 vs Type 2 decisions\n- `Regret Minimization` - What will future-you think?\n- `Opportunity Cost` - What are you giving up?\n- `Bayesian` - Update beliefs with evidence\n- `Probabilistic` - Calibrated probability estimates\n\n### Systems Models (Understand interconnections)\n- `Systems Thinking` - Feedback, emergence, non-linearity\n- `Feedback Loops` - Reinforcing and balancing loops\n- `Theory of Constraints` - Find and exploit the bottleneck\n- `Leverage Points` - Where small changes have big effects\n- `Archetypes` - Recurring system patterns\n\n### Risk Models (Prepare for failure)\n- `Pre-mortem` - Assume failure, explain why\n- `Red Team` - Attack your own plan\n- `Margin of Safety` - Build in buffers\n- `Inversion` - Identify paths to failure, avoid them\n\n### Innovation Models (Create breakthroughs)\n- `First Principles` - Strip to fundamentals, rebuild\n- `TRIZ` - Resolve technical contradictions\n- `Effectuation` - Start with means, not goals\n- `Via Negativa` - Improve by removing\n\n### Evaluation Models (Judge quality)\n- `Steel-manning` - Argue strongest opposing view\n- `Lindy Effect` - Older = likely to last longer\n- `Circle of Competence` - Know your expertise boundaries\n- `Occam's Razor` - Prefer simpler explanations\n\n### Context Models (Match approach to situation)\n- `Cynefin` - Clear/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic domains\n- `Model Selection` - Choose the right model\n- `Model Combination` - Use multiple models together\n\n### Product Models (Build the right thing)\n- `Jobs to be Done` - What job is user hiring this for?\n- `Thought Experiment` - Structured imagination\n\n### Estimation Models (Size unknowns)\n- `Fermi Estimation` - Order-of-magnitude calculations\n\n## When to Combine Models\n\nUse **Model Combination** when:\n\n| Situation | Combination Pattern | Example |\n|-----------|--------------------| --------|\n| High-stakes decision | Sequential | Reversibility → Pre-mortem → Opportunity Cost |\n| System diagnosis | Nested | Cynefin (macro) → ToC (meso) → OODA (micro) |\n| Validating strategy | Parallel | Red Team + Steel-manning + Second-Order |\n| Innovation under constraints | Sequential | First Principles → TRIZ → Effectuation |\n| Career decision | Temporal | 5 Whys (past) → Circle of Competence (present) → Regret Min (future) |\n\n## Template\n\n```markdown\n# Model Router Analysis\n\n## Context\nDomain: [Coding/Architecture/Product/Strategy/Personal/Abstract/Risk/Innovation]\nProblem: [Brief description]\nProblem Type: [Diagnose/Decide/Understand/Create/Evaluate/Predict/Optimize]\n\n## Routed Models\nPrimary: [Main model to use]\nSecondary: [If needed]\nCombination pattern: [Sequential/Parallel/Nested/None]\n\n## Application\n[Apply the selected model(s) here]\n\n## Verification\n- [ ] Domain correctly identified\n- [ ] Problem type matches\n- [ ] Model fits the situation\n- [ ] Considered if combination needed\n```\n\n## Key Questions\n\n- \"What domain am I operating in?\"\n- \"What type of problem is this—diagnose, decide, understand, create, or evaluate?\"\n- \"What's the default model for this domain + type?\"\n- \"Does one model cover it, or do I need to combine?\"\n- \"Am I using a model because it fits, or because it's familiar?\"\n\n---\n\n**Remember:** You don't need to know all 38 models. You need to know how to find the right one. Start with domain, identify problem type, look it up, apply. That's it.\n"},"import":{"commit_sha":"a31e22d4445ad8fef7cd771d32af537aebb68c49","imported_at":"2026-05-22T21:14:39Z","license_text":"MIT License\n\nCopyright (c) 2025 TJ Boudreaux\n\nPermission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy\nof this software and associated documentation files (the \"Software\"), to deal\nin the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights\nto use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell\ncopies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is\nfurnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:\n\nThe above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all\ncopies or substantial portions of the Software.\n\nTHE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED \"AS IS\", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR\nIMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,\nFITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE\nAUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER\nLIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,\nOUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE\nSOFTWARE.\n","owner":"tjboudreaux","repo":"tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills","source_url":"https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/tree/a31e22d4445ad8fef7cd771d32af537aebb68c49/skills/thinking-model-router"}},"content_hash":[63,48,131,218,103,205,36,238,10,65,163,154,157,16,39,126,30,75,251,251,167,219,116,28,250,63,179,73,180,5,156,126],"trust_level":"unsigned","yanked":false}